April 18, 2013

Where do you think the prices are headed?


Gold price has slightly recovered on Tuesday and Wednesday after the dramatic drop on Friday and Monday, however it still is 17% off the year´s high and 28% from the all-time high. Gold is not the only commodity that is currently suffering, among the others are crude oil, which is down by 5%, copper (10%) and corn (8%).

According to analysts the downward tendency could be a sign of a general slowing down of global growth. The opinion was backed up on Tuesday when the International Monetary Fund changed its global growth forecast for 2013 from 3.5% to 3.3%, referring to the weakness in the eurozone, which remains a threat to global growth.

In what direction will the price go later this week?

Kitco Gold Price Survey has shown interesting results. Out of  21 analysists, who took part in the survey, 10 see prices up, and exactly the same number of participants (10) see them down, only one sees prices moving sideways or remaining neutral. Check out the publication for details.

This way or another the uncertainty is strong even among the leading experts. As always, nothing but time will show...

Yours,
GBULLION team

February 16, 2013

Gold’s Outlook for Next Week


This week the majority of Kitco Gold Survey participants are bearish: 48% of respondents believe that the prices for gold will see a downward trend, 36% remain bullish and only 4% preferred to stay neutral.

How do those who see weaker prices back their position up? In their opinion the technical charts have become bearish in the short-term for gold.

“The $1,582-$1,591 area should be the next (area to) hold. This thing looks heavier than a ’57 Chevy,” said Adam Klopfeinstein, market strategist with Archer Financial Services.

Those 36% who see stronger prices next week, explain their take on that by 2 facts. Firstly, gold price may bounce as the price supports has been taken out. Secondly, now that the Lunar New Year holiday is over, chinese traders should become active again, especially in with the current price situation. The buying will give the gold price the necessary stimulus.

Who would you rather agree with? What is your strategy for the nearest future?

Let us know what your opinion is!

Best,
GBULLION team

February 10, 2013

Will Gold Prices Go Up Next Week?


On Friday metal prices have recovered from Thursday´s dip, but still did not manage to break through ahead of the weekend and the Chinese Lunar New Year holiday starting next week.

What are experts’ predictions for the next week? Do they see higher or lower prices? Kitco Gold Survey participants do not seem to come to an agreement on the outlook for gold prices this week either.

This week´s statistics is the following:
  • 24 responses out 33;
  • 12 respondents expect prices to go up;
  • 4 respondents tend to believe that the prices will go down;
  • 8 respondents think the prices will move sideways.


What makes them think so?

The 12 bullish experts back up their opinion by the fact that the underlying fundamentals still act in favor of gold and that has not undergone any changes.

The experts who preferred to stay be neutral and went for the sideways option see no reason for gold to suddenly change its current trading range. “Without a catalyst gold, will likely hold in this current range between $1,650 and $1,690 and may trade closer to $1, 670.”

And finally the bearish ones. Those who expect prices to go down said “with the metal unable to break above resistance in the $1,690 to $1,700 level, the path of least resistance is lower. Others said the lackluster trading activity in gold gives no incentive to buy it now.“

Up or down? What is your take on the current situation?

Yours,
GBULLION Team

January 28, 2013

Metals Outlook for the Current Week

Market insiders are split over the direction of the price of gold for this week, according to a Kitco News Gold Survey published on Friday, 25 January 2013. Of the survey's 33 participants, eight expect prices to rise, 12 expect a drop, and five expect to see movement sideways, with eight participants providing no response.

Participants who expected weaker prices cited gold's failure to break the $1,700 an ounce threshold. Also acknowledged was the increased strength in the stock market, as the Standard & Poor's 500 broke the 1,500 level for the first time in five years, which has drawn short-term investors away from gold. Reasonable economic news from the eurozone and the U.S., where the debt-ceiling debate was deferred, also triggered selling in gold.

Those bullish on gold said the underlying fundamentals that have supported gold, such as expansionary monetary policy and continued uncertainty in the global economy, have not changed, which has helped to push gold's value upward. Additionally, respondents said central banks are continuing to add to their reserves, as one Russian central bank chief was quoted in media reports last week saying that the bank will continue buying gold in its attempt to diversify away from foreign reserves and paper assets.

The majority of respondents who see sideways movement said the market is in a range, with the ceiling at $1,700 and the floor in the mid to low-$1,600, and with no visible pressures on either side, gold is likely to remain in this range. Market participants said they believe there to be support for the metal at the $1,650 and $1,620 range should its price drop.

Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders, money managers and technical-chart analysts.

Yours,
GBULLION team

December 30, 2012

Happy 2013!


Dear all,

On behalf of entire GBULLION team we would like to wish you peace, joy and fulfillment, as well as prosperity and good fortune in all your future endeavors!
We are very grateful for your contribution to our success this year and look forward to working together in the years to come.

Happy 2013!

Yours,
GBULLION

December 9, 2012

Up? Down? or Sideways?


The majority of Kitco News Gold Survey Participants remain bullish. The general certainty in the fact that the price will go up is a bit lower as compared to the week before, but is still high.

Let's look at the exact figures. The total number of respondents this week is 24, 15 out of those expect the prices to increase, 5 participants see them down and 4 preferred to stay neutral - that is they see prices moving sideways.

There are 2 opinions as to why the price for the yellow metal should continue to go up. The first reason to believe it is going to be the case is the fact that the market’s break was overdone and is due for a rebound on oversold conditions. According to the second opinion gold will return to trading on its underlying bullish fundamentals of central bank monetary stimulus as soon as the market gets past the year-end holidays, and THAT will allow gold to rise.

What makes the 5 participant think the price will go down? Darin Newsom, senior analyst at DTN gives the following explanation. “The trend of the Feb contract remains down with initial support near $1,669, a price that marks the 50% retracement of the previous uptrend from $1,538.10 to the high of $1,800.”

This way or another, we should still remember that markets tend to be rather volatile closer ot the end of the year, which makes some participants interested in closing up shop for now.

But like they say... you never know!
Have a great week everyone!

Yours,
GBULLION Team


November 18, 2012

Gold Demand Trends Q3 2012

The latest edition of Gold Demand Trends by Gold Council is now out.

The report looks into the gold demand in the 3rd quarter of 2012, which equals 1,084.6 tonnes - this figure is 11% lower than the record set in the 3rd quarter of 2011 (1,223.5). However it was still above the five year quarterly average of 984.7 tonnes. In value terms, gold demand was 14% lower year on year at $57.6bn and the average gold price of $1,652/oz was down 3% on the record average Q3 2011 price. 

Interested in more details? Download the full report !

Have a great week everyone!

Yours,
GBULLION team